Thomas Bayes and Bayes Theorem

The predictive features of Bayesian Systems' products are based on a fundamental principal of logic known as Bayes’ theorem. This principle was discovered in 1761 by the Englishman Thomas Bayes, and brought into its modern form shortly thereafter by the great French mathematician Pierre Simon de Laplace.

Properly understood, the theorem is the fundamental mathematical law governing the process of logical inference—determining what degree of confidence we may have, in various possible conclusions, based on the body of evidence available. This is exactly the process of predictive reasoning; therefore, to arrive at a logically defensible prediction one must use Bayes’ theorem.

Derivation of Bayes Theorem