Dr. Kaplan is one of the early practitioners of the discipline now known as Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), and a major contributor to its theory, language, philosophy and methodology. His ideas and methods are widely used in the international risk and reliability community, and in regulatory agencies worldwide. His first rigorous training in risk thinking took place during his first job in industry, which was assembling pieces of uranium to determine the critical mass. Later he began formalizing, mathematizing, clarifying, simplifying, and quantifying the risk assessment process, beginning with risk analyses of nuclear plants and major construction projects. Others of his applications include risk assessments of portions of the space shuttle system, aircraft impact on nuclear plants, hazardous materials storage and transportation, a spent fuel pool, re-search reactors, offshore oil drilling (environmental risk), uranium mill tailings, underground oil storage, pipeline construction projects (surface and undersea), a coal mine, chemical plants, a dam, tarsands projects, a refinery demolition project, manufacturing processes, licensing of a new agricultural chemical, and regulatory rule changes relating to importation of animals and fruits. He has been instrumental in motivating and training the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (along with other Government agencies) in the use of QRA and Bayesian methods.

Aerospace and defense applications include risk analyses of space systems and methodologies for assessing reliability of helicopters and missiles during development and procurement. Similarly developed predictive reliability methods (now in use) `for a major auto manufacturer. Contributed significantly to the U.S. Naval nuclear propulsion program by analyses of the xenon spatial instability problem, of reactor space-time kinetics, and by developing the Kaplan synthesis methods (still in use) in reactor physics. Major contributor to the methodology of nuclear QRA, as represented in the Zion, Indian Point, and Seabrook studies. Developer of the discrete probability distribution (DPD) method for probabilistic calculations, the two-stage Bayesian technique for data analysis, the "set of triplets," "probability of frequency," and "cause table"concepts in risk analysis. Originator of the matrix theory of event trees, the DPD approach to seismic risk analysis, and the "Expert Information" approach to eliciting/combining knowledge from experts. Original architect of the RISKMAN® software package for interactive risk analysis, the PROODENCE code for analysis of construction project overruns, the SEIS code for seismic risk analysis, and the BARP Program for graphical Bayesian reliability analysis. Developed Bayesian artificial intelligence programs (expert systems) for medical diagnosis, nuclear plant control room assistance, predictive maintenance of VORTAC electronic navigation equipment, automotive and truck diagnosis, diagnosis of venomous animal bites/stings, and prediction of outcome of bidding contests.

Dr. Kaplan is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, a Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis and the author of a number of the seminal papers in this field. He was one of the first American scientists to take interest in and contribute to the Russian science TRIZ, the Theory of the Solution of Inventive Problems. He believes this theory can make a significant contribution to the practice of QRA and decision making, and is currently promoting and further developing this idea, in collaboration with the Russian founders.

Professional Honors

• Member, National Academy of Engineering
• Recipient, Society for Risk Analysis Distinguished Achievement Award, 1996.
• Fellow, Society for Risk Analysis.
• Senior Post-Doctoral Research Fellowship, National Institute of Health, University of Southern California, 1967-1969.
• Westinghouse/U.S. AEC Joint Doctoral Fellowship in Nuclear Engineering 1955-1970.
• U.S. Atomic Energy Commission Category A Student Fellowship to Oak Ridge School of Reactor Technology, 1954.
• Tau Beta Pi, Sigma Chi, Dean's List, Cum Laude.
• Invited Speaker, Lecturer at Numerous Conferences, Short Courses, Etc.
• President, Society for Risk Analysis, Southern California Chapter.
• Editorial Board, Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Elsevier, Ltd.).
• Regular Instructor, Risk Analysis Course, American Institute of Chemical Engineers.
• Invited expert, Advisory Committee on Reactor Safety, and Advisory Committee on Nuclear Waste.
• Member, National Research Council Committee on Alternatives for Inspection of Outer Continental Shelf Operations; Alternate member, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
• Task Force on Quantitative Risk Assessment;
• American Society of Civil Engineers;
• American Nuclear Society;
• Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics;
• New York Academy of Sciences;
• Society for Risk Analysis.
• Patent, Computer Based Expert System Organized According to Bayes' Theorem