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March 1, 1999

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Risk Assessment Theory Is Harnessed
to Assess Probability of Winning a Contract

Stan Kaplan, chairman and founder of Bayesian Systems, Inc., of Rockville, MD, has been elected to the prestigious National Academy of Engineering. He was honored for "providing the framework of a general theory of risk assessment" that has become the standard in the risk assessment community. Election to the NAE, sister to the National Academy of Sciences, is among the highest professional distinctions accorded an engineer.

Dr. Kaplan developed his theory of risk assessment in the 1970s while working on a gas pipeline project in Canada. His landmark paper, coauthored with John Garrick, is "On the Quantitative Definition of Risk." It was the first paper published in the first issue of the Journal of the Society for Risk Analysis.

A key element of that theory is Bayesian inference which is used in Bayesian Systems' entire product line. WinAward™, its flagship product, is a bid tracking, analysis and decision software system for business development in the government contractor market. WinAward uses the Bayesian software engine to operate the prediction aspects of the program. The system supports the bid/no-bid decision by carefully evaluating many factors, including competitors, the marketplace, and costs of bidding. It assesses the win probability and projects anticipated profits from bid decisions.

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